What's the best thing Nigel Farage could do for Britain?

How to solidify the success of Brexit

What's the best thing Nigel Farage could do for Britain?

Some might suggest finally finishing off the Tories; others might suggest standing aside.

I might suggest that both of these answers are wrong. The best thing Nigel Farage can do for Britain isn’t really about domestic internecine right-wing politics at all - it’s about America.

Following the election of Donald Trump – who has talked about imposing a levies of up to 20% on all US goods imports - a huge amount of ink has been spilled by commentators on the possibility of a two-front trade war between Europe and America, and between China and America (alongside the frozen trade war between Europe and China).

During the previous trade war, while Britain was still formally part of the EU, it faced 25% U.S. import tariffs on distilled spirits. The Trump administration, engaged in trade battles on multiple fronts, imposed these tariffs as part of a broader strategy to levy border taxes on goods from both allies and adversaries of the United States.

It’s reasonable to be worried about this. Economists at the University of Sussex's Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) warned that this round of tariffs could lead to a more than 2.6% drop in UK exports globally, driven by reduced trade with the US and broader ripple effects. Such a decline would equate to a 0.8% annual reduction in the UK’s economic output. Meanwhile, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research projected that Trump’s policies could slash UK economic growth by half.

The US is Britain’s single largest trade partner, with trade worth more than £300bn a year in goods and services as well as more than £1tn in foreign direct investment. Added to this is that, following the curtailing of supplies from the east after the Ukrainian war, the US now supplies 50% of Britain’s LNG.

There are positive signals; reportedly Trump is ‘considering making British exports exempt from tariffs’. This is firstly born of his commitment to, and frustration at our inability to make a success of, Brexit; New Jersey governor Phil Murphy, a Democrat who reports a "good relationship" with him, stated this in an interview.

But it is also an attempt to lure Britain away from the regulatory framework and socialist economics of the EU. Stephen Moore, his new trade adviser, recently told the Times: “I’ve always said that Britain has to decide – do you want to go towards the European socialist model or do you want to go towards the US free market? Lately it seems like they are shifting more in a European model, and so if that’s the case I think we’d be less interested in having [a free trade deal].”

Britain would stand to benefit hugely from this carve-out, allowing the trade relationship with our biggest partner to be protected whilst increasing the competitiveness of British exports by increasing the cost of doing business faced by companies from competitor nations.

But, as Fred de Fossard writes, ‘there are still many barriers to this deal domestically, and the noises coming out of the Government this week suggest these barriers are only getting higher.’

The signals are far from positive. Downing Street has warned America that a tariff could cost 1M American jobs, and it has been suggested that Britain may impose retaliatory (derogatory) tariffs ‘on ‘iconic’ U.S. goods including Harley Davidsons, Levis and Jack Daniels. The Business Secretary indicated that if the U.S. were to initiate a trade war with China, the UK would prefer to align with Europe and the Prime Minister has intensified efforts to engage with European allies.

Conquest’s Third Law in action:

The behavior of any bureaucratic organization can best be understood by assuming that it is controlled by a secret cabal of its enemies.

It is almost unheard of for the leader of a minority party to have any role (or even relevance) in international affairs. But Farage’s personally close relationship with Trump – by virtue of his leading role in Brexit – means he is going to have a far outsized influence.

And the best thing Nigel Farage can do for Britain is to use his influence to stymie those in Government who want us to move closer to Europe – and see Trump’s election as a casus belli for their preferred strategy – by working to move Britain closer to America.

Again, there are positive signals. In a recent piece in the FT, he was reported as saying that ‘there are advantages to being an intermediary’ and was scathing about potential repercussions from Brussels: ‘If we do a deal with the US, will the EU put sanctions on us? I doubt it.’ Citing the faster growth the US economy has recently enjoyed over the EU, he said: ‘Where is the future? We have to take a view.’

It’s not quite clear whether Farage is an Atlanticist, rather than just a Trump ally. But he is a rationalist, and a Eurosceptic; he recognises the greater sphere of prosperity lies across the Atlantic not the Channel, and will also likely have had his hackles raised by suggestions from Lib Dem MPs that Trump’s election requires us to rejoin the Customs Union. Moderating the pro-EU lobby would be a vital service, preventing pressing down upon the brow of labor the prospect of rejoining a shrinking market that is suffocating itself with regulation - as well as showing that Britain can stand to make serious material benefit out of Brexit, should its leadership only be prepared to do the necessary.

Moving us closer to America is likely to have positive secondary-order consequences in our regulatory frameworks, too; American companies (in particular those the powerful tech sector) are unlikely to be thrilled about greater British economic opportunities if the wildly overpowered, overreached and overmighty Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act stays in place. Greater American influence might move us towards competition law that is more moderate, and away from the compliance regime that is killing the EU’s technological sector and forcing innovation abroad.

We were insulated from having to chart a separate course for Britain during Trump’s last trade war by virtue of being members of the EU. We no longer have either that luxury or that shackle (the reader, according to their measure of faith, will choose as is appropriate). If Nigel Farage wants to solidify Brexit - his Brexit - as a success story, then there are few more important than him. We stand at the gate of prosperity; Mr. Trump… tear down these tarriffs!